To the lumber market trader who knows that predicting lumber prices is critical to success, the lumber market is easy to beat when you know what's coming!
THE LUMBER MARKET’s CRYSTAL BALL IS INSIDE THE INNER CIRCLE!
There is only one place to become a master trader
JOIN THE INNER CIRCLE TODAY00
DAYS
00
HOURS
00
MINS
00
SECS
When I say “lumber market” I mean the kind of lumber we build a house with that quadrupled its price in 12 months in 2020-21.
Then in one month, June 2021, lost half its value.
Suddenly lumber has become popular at the gym, in church, even at the hair salon.
I explained for months why that whiplash was going to happen, and for weeks now why it is happening, and months from now I’ll still be explaining why it happened. It’s the same story, beginning to end.
That's why Layman's Lumber Guide has created an exlcusive, cultivated community for Lumber Traders.
Therein lies the secret to Forecasting the Lumber Market…
Repeating - Predictable Human Behavior.
To the gym member, church goer, salon visitor, and even the unaware lumber participant, this commodity appears to be wildly volatile.
Volatile yes....but cyclically predictable as well...and we can benefit from that by observing and and anticipating how lumber folk will act and react under different stresses and repeating Preparations for Demand.
Today however, Instead of rehashing old headlines and conspiracy theories, how would you like to take a peek at Lumber’s Crystal Ball.
Inside the Inner Circle, the Layman's Lumber Guide team will show you the behind the scenes look at how we develop the Forecast Decision Points so that you can apply these expert strategies in your business.
YES! There is an actual, working, real lumber market crystal ball.
The Layman's Lumber Guide crystal ball reveals “when” the price of lumber will reverse and accelerate, with 86% accuracy, and we are ready to now show you EXACTLY how the process works,
(+/- one week margin of error)
It is referred to in Layman’s Lumber Guide terms as Forecasted Decision Points (FDP’s).
But if all we had to do was to show you where the turning points were, there would be a lot of millionaires reading this page. I dont have to tell you that it isnt a matter of simply reading a report, its a matter of having the confidence to know when to buy, when to sell, when to hold....
...And when to DOUBLE DOWN!
Layman’s Lumber Guide
Forecasted Decision Points...FDP’s
The lumber market’s crystal ball.
By this point in your career and familiarity with the Layman's Guide process, you are well aware the black & green vertical lines are FDP’s, weeks where Layman’s Lumber Guide projected a lumber market directional change...12-months behind and 12 months ahead. (Prepared June 20, 2021).
What you aren't aware of is how these FDP's are calculated and that is EXACTLY WHAT YOU WILL LEARN in the Inner Circle.
To show you exactly how to use the FDP’s in your lumber business to become a better buyer, we must show you the 6 constant market drivers that affect the Lumber Market in all segments of the industry at all times.
The Inner Circle is the only place to see exactly what happens behind the curtains in our Market Forecasting algorithm.
Who markets like that? Show you everything? That’s absurd! So is what you are about to learn.
This is your One Time Invitation for Insider Access at
How to Beat the Lumber Market
What is the Inner Circle?
And Why Now?
Matt Layman has worked in lumber commodities for nearly four decades, drawing on a wealth of real-world experience. Matt studied Computer Science and Engineering Operations at North Carolina State University from 1971 to 1975, and began his career in the forest products industry in May 1977 as an inside sales representative for Georgia Pacific Corporation at its Raleigh, North Carolina distribution branch. After spending two years in sales and panel procurement for the branch, he transferred to the Charlotte, NC branch to manage their “cut-to-size” and industrial program.
In the summer of 1984 Matt began creating The Pine Page, and the first issue was published May 1985 as a southern yellow pine lumber and plywood market analysis and forecast. From 1988 through 1990, he traded lumber with Arling Lumber Company, Cincinnati, OH and from 1990-1992 Matt operated and owned a retail lumber business, Woodscapes Plus (specializing in custom pressure treated decks, fencing, playground equipment and outdoor furniture), in Burlington, NC.
In 1992 The Pine Page expanded and rebranded as Layman’s Lumber Guide and became Layman’s full time occupation. Layman’s Lumber Guide Forecasting Suite is the industry's most prominent and reliable lumber market analyses and forecasts, covering Southern Yellow Pine lumber, Canadian SPF lumber, Western US lumber and OSB...projecting "WHEN" lumber & OSB prices will most likely reverse or accelerate trends.
In 2015 Matt was diagnosed with Parkinsons. In 2020 with a desire to spend more time with his family he made a commitment to retire in 2025. Since that point he has made every effort possible to transfer three decades of experience into your business. But, we don't have three decades to teach it.
With impending retirement and the transition of Layman's Lumber Guide to a new generation of experts, the Inner Circle is the ONLY forum to receive one-to-one weekly coaching and market insights.
This is it, we are giving it all away and there is no guarantee there will ever be a Round 2 of the Inner Circle
Inner Circle Experience
The Inner Circle is a forum for lumber market industry leaders to learn, apply and share best practices so that you can experience record profits and growth in your business. In this community we use three pillars (Content, Coaching and Community) to facilitate a cultivated learning experience. Immersive in nature, the Inner Circle is like nothing else that exists in the entirety of the lumber market.
While attending the training sessions live will allow you to apply the concepts in real time with real market conditions, we realize it isn't practical to be on all the calls live because you have a business to run. Coaching calls will be held opposite weeks of the Training sessions and all calls will be recorded in case you can't attend live. Simply log in to your training portal to access all previous training modules.
COMMUNITY
By bringing together the industry's foremost leaders we are able to harness the "best of the best." We believe that a rising tide floats all boats and by sharing our best practices that one person winning doesn't have to mean another losing
CONTENT
Across 6 Core Content modules we discover the drivers BEHIND the Forecast Decision Points that can be applied in all seasons, across all lumber business types (from the tree to the home) and independent of seasonality and market pressures
COACHING
A combination of both mentoring and coaching, this community is designed to be both the mirror and the flashlight to remove the largest hurdle between you and the record breaking year you are ready to have--YOU.
MODULE 1: Predictable, Repeating, Human Behavior
In the first module we cover how a lifetime accumulation of experiences create habits. Recency Bias has the greatest influence. The very first adjustment all of us must make is accepting that humans are predictable. The more we resist that fact, the more pain we cause ourselves.
MODULE 2: FDPs...
all you really need to know.
In the second module you will learn how FDPs are the lumber market’s expression of predictable, repeating human behaviors. Once you become accustomed to categorizing stories as a sales pitch to justify a position, the FDP's become a stand-alone market forecasting tool.
MODULE 3:
Lumber Market Cycles
In the third module you will learn Preparatory and Demand cycles, how they are seasonally influenced, making them predictable. Disruptions impact volatility of these cycles but not the timing. The INNER CIRCLE will handle these disruptions in real time.
MODULE 4: Overlooked Obvious
In the fourth module you will learn that everything is not as it seems. There is always a counterpoint. This is my favorite pass time or hobby. I listen to what stories the masses/media are spewing in support of an agenda, then uncover what pertinent information is being over looked.
MODULE 5:
Position Talking
In the fifth module you will learn Information from sources of supply or customers should always be filtered through their financial investment in the market. Back to repeating, predictable behavior...our nature is to speak in concert with our actions, even as conditions for the decisions are changing.
MODULE 6: Disruptions
In the final module you will learn what influences are having an adverse effect on market conditions. More importantly we will overcome the tendency to over react to disruptions. And finally, we will implement end-of-disruption inventory strategies.
The Inner Circle is Ready To Welcome You
After three decades helping others beat the lumber market, Layman's Guide has created the only program that shows you behind the scenes at how we predict the turns in the market with greater than 80% accuracy and coach you through the process to apply those same concepts confidently in your business.
What People Are Saying About Our Community
Hundreds of lumber producers, wholesalers, lumber dealers, wood preservers, component manufacturers, and builders read these forecasts each week. Here's what they have to say:
"Why are we a member of LLG? The quick and easy answer is that most of the time you get it right. Oh, sure, there is the occasional miss, and sometimes not even a close miss, but in all the years we’ve been subscribing (maybe 20+?) the majority of the time you get it right. There are other publications to be had but the LLG, even back when it was the Pine Page, got us the closest to the market dips and spikes than most. You have evolved and adapted to the market but the basis for your information has remained the same, the market runs in cycles and history does repeat itself. If you have a favorite sports team you know they are going to have the occasional stinker game, it’s inevitable. But usually after that stinker is when they are more focused and determined than ever. The same can be said about you. You usually rebound more focused and determined to get it right after the once-in-a-while stinker miss. Bottom line, 86% of getting it right, to us, is worth the price of admission. Now, if we could just get the Falcons to win 86% of their games."
- H. Tery Overbey, Hill's Ace Hardware & Lumber Center
"Why Layman’s Guide? Information, and I can't have enough of it. On my end I am able to talk with my suppliers and warn them that they need to make or hold off on buys that will benefit them and myself along with holding them accountable for the prices I get from them. As far as missing something, it happens. But you're quick to react and have spot on information on why you missed it but you're still ahead of the masses so the right corrective actions can be taken. Since I'm the end user and know what I have in my pipeline the info you are giving to the supply side helps me project the risk we have to overcome. One example of this is very small but a very important one, you have been warning for over a month now about treated lumber issues and it has become a real issue today but I talked to my supplier about bringing in some 2x4x16 treated plate about 5 weeks ago and letting me buy three units of it from him so he did not have to carry any inventory cost, why you may ask it would be awful hard to start a home without any treated plate material. We would be shut down."
- John Breckenridge, Hallmark Homes
"In my seat as a commodities purchaser, the most critical and profitable portion of my job is forecasting. Robots can fill empty slots but planning and making educated guesses (i.e., forecasting) is an art combining many, many factors and nuances which few outside of the purchasing realm fully grasp. You, my friend, are the only source I have found in the market who has the cojones (you may quote that as “guts”) to actually walk the walk and dare to live in the subjective world of interpreting data with a 100% percent chance of being wrong from time to time. There are the occasional industry writers who dare to pen forecasts for “the future” - far enough out and obscure enough to be forgotten or of little impact - but you dare to live in the here and now, in the trenches where I and my peers have to make decisions every day that are going to financially impact our company’s and coworker’s financial return in the very short term future. Reports such as Random Lengths and Shoe’s have their place as historical data but they leave all of the extrapolation of the potential impact of that data moving forward squarely in their reader’s lap. On the other hand, you look at historical market data, human behavior, repeating patterns in the supply/demand counterbalance and market drivers (mill output, reported purchase volumes, car and truck volume, futures and current social-economic factors) and come up with a forecast. The info alone is worth the value but when combined with your FTP tool, it all combines as a great tool to mirror against my own preconceptions, market knowledge, historical data and current market activity to come up with the best decisions for my company. You claim an 80+ percentile in accuracy which is something I can confirm from my own historical experience. I’ll take those odds any day in this crazy world we call commodity trading. As an independent thinker I don’t always agree with your calls but your tools are proven winners and your thoughts are well established as level headed, astute evaluations of what we face in our daily challenges as purchasers. In this business, only one or two good tips will more than pay for the subscription costs which leaves your continuing stream of insight as an excellent return on investment."
- David Wells, Goldsboro Builders Supply
"Matt, Any help to follow market trends helps me tremendously. I have been in the business for many years, but on the sales side only. Sitting in the captain's chair is a different look all the way around. Even the stories, words of encouragement, past and present details that have been “trends'' are a great help to me. I have personally started using some of the words that I feel have a powerful meaning in some of our meetings. I have heard stories of the past owner Scott Wright, and the ups and downs, but never really felt them. When covid-19 hit, after about the second week, I watched my wife cry across the hall one day because we thought (this is it). Everything we have worked for all our life is about to come to an end. We are in our late 30’s early 40’s with preteen children. We were trying to figure out what we were going to sell off first. But I felt deep down from one of your articles that we were close to the “turn” in the market. She's begging me to quit ordering material…. I told her to just wait and give this another week, at the time I was still ordering trucks of material because the market was moving fast. And then, it hit. We went from a straight drop to bottom, to a straight up to top. But we were going to have a bridge to cross between the two because of how it happened so rapidly. That was my next hurdle to cross. We crossed that bridge June 1st and we sat that day at 38.5% up from last year's numbers. Actually numbers were up for the first half of year from everything I could find for the last 20 years. Sorry to ramble but YOUR words were what I looked to for a guiding map during those times. I realize we are far from out of the woods, but with what we went through a few months ago, I do sit a little taller and proud but also very HUMBLE and willing to learn more. Thanks for all you do."
- Jason McDaniel, President, City Lumber Company of Dyer
Common Questions
Have a question not listed below? Send an e-mail to [email protected].
What species and products do you cover?
When are the Training Events? What happens if I cant attend live?
How accurate are LLG's LUMBER MARKET TIMING FORECASTS?
Who are LLG members?
What does membership cost? How do I know its worth it?
Are you available by phone or email or text?
Do you do private consulting?
Ready To Beat The Lumber Market?
Let’s get started right now.
There is no community in the entire industry that not only published content that is greater than 80% accurate at forecasting the prices of lumber, but has also built a community of experts and has assembled a team of coaches and mentors to help you create your breakthrough year.
ARE YOU A LUMBER INDUSTRY LEADER?
Ready to take your profits to the next level?
JOIN THE INNER CIRCLE TODAYWhat is the Inner Circle?
If you are at this point in the page you are likely the type of person that scrolled straight to the bottom and the only thing you want to know is "how will the Inner Circle help me?"
Sure, we are happy to answer! Here are the three highlights:
- Content. 6 Core Modules show you the behind the scenes look at the forces that affect the swings in the lumber market.
- Community. If you are the product of the 5 loudest voices in your head, those voices should be the industry leaders that are beating the market year on year.
- Coaching. What you need is an unbiased look at how the lumber markets will affect your bottom line. Coaches are simply the mirror and the flashlight to help you have confidence in your buying decision so that you can have your best year yet.
Now you simply need to click the button to your left and join the Inner Circle Now.
Still Need a Push?
100% Money Back Double Your R.O.I. Guarantee
If having industry leading content, beating the market over 80% of the time for greater than three decades isn't enough, we want this to be an absolutely no-brainer for you.
We are so convinced that this program will lead to record profits in your business that if you don't make the entirety of your investment back during the course of the 1-year program we will refund you the entire amount.
With our 100% money back guarantee you simply need to e-mail [email protected] after the completion of the program in April 2023 and request your full refund. (Don't worry, we will even send you multiple e-mail reminders)
In order to qualify you simply need to participate in 50% of the training (live or recorded). So not only will you receive the refund, you will also have all our insider secrets on how to beat the lumber market. If you don't plan on participating, this wouldn't be a good program for you anyway.
PLUS, if you play by the rules, you stand to make wheel barrow full of throw away money.
