A lumber market forecast built for the people who actually have to make the buying decision.
Know when to buy. Know when to wait.
START THE FREE TRIAL TODAYEvery week, Layman's Lumber Guide turns current market behavior and 26 years of historical price data into practical buying intelligence.
See where the market stands, where each product sits within its timing cycle, and whether the historical evidence favors acting now or waiting.
No credit card. No payment information. Put the Guide to work before you decide whether it's worth paying for.
Every Week, a Lumber Buyer Has to Make the Same Decision.
Buy now—or wait?
A price reporting service can tell you what lumber costs today.
That's useful.
But if you're responsible for purchasing lumber, the harder question is what to do with that information.
Do you commit today or wait until Friday?
Are you building inventory—or simply covering what you need?
Is the trade early in a move, or is that move nearly spent?
That's the gap Layman's Lumber Guide is designed to fill.
We don't claim to know what next week's lumber price will be.
Instead, LLG helps you understand when the lumber trade is likely to change its buying behavior, where you are within the market's timing cycle, and what 26 years of historical data says about the decision in front of you.
The Data only matters if you know what to do with it.
See the Forecast in Action
Here’s what one Sunday Forecast can tell you.
In Week 38, Southern Yellow Pine had risen $40. But price movement alone doesn't tell a buyer what to do next.
SYP +$40
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Rising + Gaining Speed
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84% higher next week vs. 51% base rate
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BUY EARLY
Across 1,411 comparable historical observations, the following week was higher 84% of the time. So if you needed lumber that week, the evidence favored committing earlier rather than later.
But that's only part of the decision.
SYP was also trading 48% above its seasonal average, while its FDP showed 11 weeks remaining before the next projected timing change.
SYP did indeed rise again $15 in week 39.
Put everything together:
COVER NEED ONLY.
Buy what you need early in the week. Don't build unnecessary inventory. Preserve buying power for later opportunities.
That's the difference between simply knowing what lumber prices are doing and having a strategy for what to do about it.
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For eight weeks, follow the weekly calls, compare them with what actually happens in the market, and see how the Guide fits into your own buying process.
At the end of your trial, you'll know whether LLG has earned a place in your business.
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What People Are Saying About Our Forecasts
Hundreds of lumber producers, wholesalers, lumber dealers, wood preservers, component manufacturers, and builders read these forecasts each week. Here's what they have to say:
"Why are we a member of LLG? The quick and easy answer is that most of the time you get it right. Oh, sure, there is the occasional miss, and sometimes not even a close miss, but in all the years we’ve been subscribing (maybe 20+?) the majority of the time you get it right. There are other publications to be had but the LLG, even back when it was the Pine Page, got us the closest to the market dips and spikes than most. You have evolved and adapted to the market but the basis for your information has remained the same, the market runs in cycles and history does repeat itself. If you have a favorite sports team you know they are going to have the occasional stinker game, it’s inevitable. But usually after that stinker is when they are more focused and determined than ever. The same can be said about you. You usually rebound more focused and determined to get it right after the once-in-a-while stinker miss. Bottom line, 86% of getting it right, to us, is worth the price of admission. Now, if we could just get the Falcons to win 86% of their games."
- H. Tery Overbey, Hill's Ace Hardware & Lumber Center
"Why Layman’s Guide? Information, and I can't have enough of it. On my end I am able to talk with my suppliers and warn them that they need to make or hold off on buys that will benefit them and myself along with holding them accountable for the prices I get from them. As far as missing something, it happens. But you're quick to react and have spot on information on why you missed it but you're still ahead of the masses so the right corrective actions can be taken. Since I'm the end user and know what I have in my pipeline the info you are giving to the supply side helps me project the risk we have to overcome. One example of this is very small but a very important one, you have been warning for over a month now about treated lumber issues and it has become a real issue today but I talked to my supplier about bringing in some 2x4x16 treated plate about 5 weeks ago and letting me buy three units of it from him so he did not have to carry any inventory cost, why you may ask it would be awful hard to start a home without any treated plate material. We would be shut down."
- John Breckenridge, Hallmark Homes
"In my seat as a commodities purchaser, the most critical and profitable portion of my job is forecasting. Robots can fill empty slots but planning and making educated guesses (i.e., forecasting) is an art combining many, many factors and nuances which few outside of the purchasing realm fully grasp. You, my friend, are the only source I have found in the market who has the cojones (you may quote that as “guts”) to actually walk the walk and dare to live in the subjective world of interpreting data with a 100% percent chance of being wrong from time to time. There are the occasional industry writers who dare to pen forecasts for “the future” - far enough out and obscure enough to be forgotten or of little impact - but you dare to live in the here and now, in the trenches where I and my peers have to make decisions every day that are going to financially impact our company’s and coworker’s financial return in the very short term future. Reports such as Random Lengths and Shoe’s have their place as historical data but they leave all of the extrapolation of the potential impact of that data moving forward squarely in their reader’s lap. On the other hand, you look at historical market data, human behavior, repeating patterns in the supply/demand counterbalance and market drivers (mill output, reported purchase volumes, car and truck volume, futures and current social-economic factors) and come up with a forecast. The info alone is worth the value but when combined with your FTP tool, it all combines as a great tool to mirror against my own preconceptions, market knowledge, historical data and current market activity to come up with the best decisions for my company. You claim an 80+ percentile in accuracy which is something I can confirm from my own historical experience. I’ll take those odds any day in this crazy world we call commodity trading. As an independent thinker I don’t always agree with your calls but your tools are proven winners and your thoughts are well established as level headed, astute evaluations of what we face in our daily challenges as purchasers. In this business, only one or two good tips will more than pay for the subscription costs which leaves your continuing stream of insight as an excellent return on investment."
- David Wells, Goldsboro Builders Supply
"Matt, Any help to follow market trends helps me tremendously. I have been in the business for many years, but on the sales side only. Sitting in the captain's chair is a different look all the way around. Even the stories, words of encouragement, past and present details that have been “trends'' are a great help to me. I have personally started using some of the words that I feel have a powerful meaning in some of our meetings. I have heard stories of the past owner Scott Wright, and the ups and downs, but never really felt them. When covid-19 hit, after about the second week, I watched my wife cry across the hall one day because we thought (this is it). Everything we have worked for all our life is about to come to an end. We are in our late 30’s early 40’s with preteen children. We were trying to figure out what we were going to sell off first. But I felt deep down from one of your articles that we were close to the “turn” in the market. She's begging me to quit ordering material…. I told her to just wait and give this another week, at the time I was still ordering trucks of material because the market was moving fast. And then, it hit. We went from a straight drop to bottom, to a straight up to top. But we were going to have a bridge to cross between the two because of how it happened so rapidly. That was my next hurdle to cross. We crossed that bridge June 1st and we sat that day at 38.5% up from last year's numbers. Actually numbers were up for the first half of year from everything I could find for the last 20 years. Sorry to ramble but YOUR words were what I looked to for a guiding map during those times. I realize we are far from out of the woods, but with what we went through a few months ago, I do sit a little taller and proud but also very HUMBLE and willing to learn more. Thanks for all you do."
- Jason McDaniel, President, City Lumber Company of Dyer
Common Questions
Have a question not list below? Email me at [email protected].